43 AI-generated brackets across 8 markets. Built with KenPom efficiency data, 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and live ESPN ownership data to find where the public is wrong — and where your money should go.
Picking winners is necessary but not sufficient. To win a bracket pool, you need to pick the right winners — the ones nobody else is picking.
ESPN data shows Duke and Arizona receive 45% of all champion picks despite having ~50% combined model probability. Names like UConn get 3.5% of picks with only 0.5% model probability. The public picks logos, not data.
A free ESPN pool with 20M entries has a completely different optimal strategy than a $20 DraftKings pool with 10K sharp players. One size does not fit all.
The expected champion wins ~30% of the time. Even the best single bracket has a tiny win probability. Multi-entry portfolio theory across markets maximizes your overall expected value.
A four-layer quantitative pipeline that goes far beyond "pick the higher seed."
Every team rated by KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margin — points per 100 possessions vs. average D1 team. Fed into a logistic win probability model calibrated to historical tournament results.
50,000 full tournament simulations. Every game resolved probabilistically. Output: advancement probability for every team at every round, from R64 to champion.
Real-time public pick percentages scraped from ESPN's People's Bracket for all 32 first-round games and all advancement rounds. This is your edge source — where the crowd is wrong.
Each of the 8 markets gets a custom bracket optimized for its field size, sharpness level, scoring system, and prize structure. Chalk for small office pools. Contrarian bombs for Kalshi's $1B prize.
Model probability vs. ESPN public pick percentage. Edge > 1.0x means the team is undervalued. Below 1.0x means overpicked.
| Champion Pick | Seed | Model Prob | ESPN Public | Edge Ratio | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 1 | 32.6% | 25.0% | 1.30x | VALUE |
| Michigan | 1 | 23.5% | 14.4% | 1.63x | HIGH VALUE |
| Illinois | 3 | 9.4% | 4.8% | 1.96x | BEST EDGE |
| Florida | 1 | 10.0% | 7.6% | 1.32x | VALUE |
| Arizona | 1 | 15.2% | 19.8% | 0.77x | OVERVALUED |
| Houston | 2 | 2.7% | 5.9% | 0.45x | FADE |
| UConn | 2 | 0.5% | 3.5% | 0.14x | HARD FADE |
Every pick, every round, every game for each entry. Organized by market with champion highlighted. Just open the PDF and copy into your bracket app.
ESPN, Yahoo, DraftKings (free + paid), bet365, Kalshi, and two office pool sizes. Each market gets a uniquely optimized strategy.
Diversified champion picks across entries using Kelly-like allocation. Duke, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Illinois, and Iowa State weighted by edge and market.
Entries range from conservative chalk to aggressive contrarian. This portfolio effect means you're never fully exposed to one scenario.
Transparent model documentation. See exactly how the logistic model works, what the Monte Carlo simulations found, and where the ownership data comes from.
Every first-round upset flagged with model probability. Know exactly where to pick the underdog and why the public is sleeping on it.
Less than the cost of a single paid DraftKings entry — and it covers all of them.
Delivered as a PDF. No subscription, no upsell.
Don't spend hours agonizing over picks. Let the model do the work.
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